Whether you’re working from a combine cab, grain truck or home office, don’t miss a moment of harvest action with Farmobile and Pro Farmer on AgriTalk Radio (Tuesdays at 2:50 p.m. CDT). Hear AgriTalk Host Chip Flory and Farmobile CEO Jason Tatge discuss weekly harvest results, powered by the Farmobile Index (available daily to subscribers.) Missed it? Hear the shows below.
11.10.20 / AgriTalk: Lean down market
6th Edition of the weekly Pro Farmer Harvest Report powered by the Farmobile Index (11/6). This week on AgriTalk, Host Chip Flory, Farmobile CEO Jason Tatge and Pro Farmer Editor Brian Grete talk about how the August-September dry weather appears to have really changed yield outcomes in several states. Also, the early harvest is allowing a lot of growers and ag retailers to get ahead of preparation work for next season. Who knows what kind of advantage the crops will have in 2021.
Chip Flory: “So, let’s take a look at the corn numbers … the Farmobile (Index) has been telling us to lean down, lean down (on yield estimates) in the Western Belt of Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, We got that today (from USDA, which has reduced its forecast).”
Jason Tatge: “Yeah, we see a little bit of that (a trend in the Farmobile Index) today. I was really surprised though … by the Eastern numbers coming down, especially in Illinois. You know, we haven’t quite seen that in our (Farmobile Index) sample size thus far. But that was the more surprising part to me. I think the Western part we kind of anticipated. The Eastern part was more of a shocker.”
11.3.20 / AgriTalk: Soybean Year
5th Edition of the weekly Pro Farmer Harvest Report powered by the Farmobile Index (10/23). This week on AgriTalk, Host Chip Flory and Farmobile CEO Jason Tatge talk about fast-paced field results slotted for near completion well in advance of Thanksgiving. Harvest came quickly and, across the board, is finishing early. Iowa’s harvest is still in question with soybean yields strong and corn seemingly far behind. Listen to the full report
Chip Flory: “To set the stage … As of November 1, 82 percent of the U.S. corn crop is harvested. That’s ahead of the 5-year average of 69 percent. And, 87 percent of the soybean crop is harvested ahead of the 5-year average of 83 percent… Jason, are things starting to slow down some?”
Jason Tatge: “It did slow down a little bit. You had some weather with snow on the ground in Minnesota, even down here in Kansas … but they are firing up right now. So, I think the weather is just about perfect all the way along I-35 right now.”
Chip Flory: “Looking at the numbers, again, it’s Iowa as still the big question mark. Right?”
Jason Tatge: “It’s more of the same. The numbers are coming up a little bit but we’re (the Farmobile Index state average) still 30 bushels off of the last number that USDA put out which was, I think, a 186 bu./acre.”
10.27.20 / AgriTalk: Outlier States
4th Edition of the weekly Pro Farmer Harvest Report powered by the Farmobile Index (10/23). This week on AgriTalk Host Chip Flory, Farmobile CEO Jason Tatge and Pro Farmer Editor Brian Grete noted Farmobile Index insights show corn yields in IA and MO are still off compared to USDA predicted yields. As of Sunday (10/25), 72% of the U.S. corn and 83% of the bean crop has been harvested. The guys also get into the soybean yields with numbers in eastern and western states a little upside down.
Jason Tatge: “In Iowa, we’re still seeing it quite a bit off of what the USDA’s estimate was of 186 (bu/acre). We’re seeing it come up a little bit but they’re still in the mid 150s right now. So, there’s a pile of corn there that we need to find … And, basis is telling us that could be real. if you look at basis across Nebraska and Iowa and even into central Illinois you’re seeing a lot of flat to really aggressive basis. And you’re seeing a lot of $4 cash corn to ship through the end of the year, and that’s pretty unique.”
Chip Flory: I was freaked out last week when I was seeing videos on Twitter … in one field they were harvesting around 195 or 200-bushel corn, on the other side of the fence they were discing under corn … So, what that final number is going to be, it’s still a moving target isn’t it Brian?”
Brian Grete: “I think they’ve (USDA) caught the bulk of the harvested acreage decline there. Obviously, they made two revisions down — one was in Iowa on the re-survey that they did after the August report, and the second was the national one where they incorporated the FSA data in October…. There may be some downward revisions, but that should catch the bulk of it.”
10.20.20 / AgriTalk: Iowa Corn Curveball
3rd Edition of the weekly Pro Farmer Harvest Report powered by the Farmobile Index (10/16). This week Brian Grete, ProFarmer Editor and Senior Market Analyst, joins Farmobile CEO Jason Tatge and AgriTalk Host Chip Flory to compare the Farmobile Index corn and soybean trends (filed 10/14 midnight) against USDA projections and what scouts saw in the field during the August 2020 Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Well into harvest, this week’s Farmobile Index “standout” observations centered around the “real variability” in corn yields – particularly in Iowa, Missouri and Nebraska – and more questions about Derecho-impacted crops in Iowa.
Chip Flory: ‘Can you start with Iowa for me, because this Iowa number has been a real head-scratcher for me.’
Jason Tatge: ‘We’re at 149 (bu/acre) right now – which is up one (bu/acre) from our report last week. But it’s still well off of the USDA’s number of 186 (bu/acre) they put out here in October. So we’re still 30+ bushels off in that one. That’s making everyone’s head scratch a little bit. And the interesting thing is, if we look at Iowa beans, the Farmobile Index is coming in two bushels over what the USDA number is – 58 vs a 56 (bu/acre). So you know, when you look at that, those numbers are right on. It’s just the corn number that seems to be a real head-scratcher, for sure.”
Brian Grete: “We were in line for a great (Iowa) crop then August 10, the Derecho ripped through the state and took the heart out of the center part of the state… You don’t know, when all is said and done, how much of that corn was even harvested and what the yields were on it. And it just raises a lot of uncertainty in a year like this.”
Hear MO, NE, IL and IN corn highlights and the full soybean report.
10.13.20 / AgriTalk: Soybeans Boom
2nd Edition of the weekly Pro Farmer Harvest Report powered by the Farmobile Index (10/9). This week Jason Tatge, Farmobile CEO and Chip Flory, AgriTalk compare the Farmobile Index corn and soybean trends (filed 10/7 – midnight) against USDA projections. Early soybean yields remained ahead of USDA projections in all states reporting this week (not terribly shocking as farmers are able to get into their early planted fields). Iowa corn yield continues to lag but is improving, and Minnesota corn yield saw the largest jump since 10/1 — confirming a really good northern growing area corn crop.
Chip Flory, on corn: “Some of these areas that we’ve been talking about … went through that dry August. It feels like in some of the areas, they (farmers) were able to build yield by that third week of August when the team was out on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour (8/17 – 8/20). They identified that yield and somehow, someway it held on to that yield even through the dry end-of-the-month, end of September…. Even to see Illinois coming in at 210 (bu/acre) — I mean, come on, that’s a doggone good number.”
Jason Tatge, on soybeans: “Almost every state is reporting better than what the USDA is projecting right now. So, if we can keep the prices up a little bit, this might be a decent opportunity (for farmers) … Early beans are generally thought of to be a little bit better yield so we’ll see next week how we follow this up.”
10.06.20 / AgriTalk: Talking Corn Crop
Last Friday (10/2), Pro Farmer Harvest Report issued its first weekly harvest results powered by the Farmobile Index. During this week’s Tuesday on-air conversation between Farmobile CEO Jason Tatge and AgriTalk Host Chip Flory, the focus was on corn yields and USDA’s surprising Quarterly Grain Stocks Report (Sept 30), which showed that old crop corn stocks on hand as of Sept. 1, 2020 were, actually, down 10% from Sept. 1, 2019. This begs the question, what is the true size of the 2020 corn crop?
Jason Tatge: “We’re seeing some states trending a little higher than what the USDA is projecting, and we’re seeing some trending quite a bit lower. The steady drip (of state-level harvest averages) is really something that is going to be important to track … Wednesday’s report – the big shocker coming out there (from USDA) – that’s just another example of ways that we can do a better job of starting to combine resources to get a better picture of what the crop size actually will be.”
Chip: “Because this is the first ensemble of the Pro Farmer Harvest Report powered by the Farmobile Index, we need to understand that there’s more data coming in all the time. And that additional data will only increase the accuracy going forward.”
9.30.20 / AgriTalk: Empower Market Decisions with Real-time
Just “how” can real-time data technology change the farmer’s harvest narrative and speed up the timeliness of intelligence for better market decision-making? It’s “playing out” – right now – as a direct farmer-benefit of Farmobile and the Farmobile Index for Harvest. That was the topic of conversation during Tuesday’s AgriTalk Radio conversation between Farmobile CEO Jason Tatge and AgriTalk Host Chip Flory.
CHIP: “So, in other words, there’s no more sitting in the cab looking at your yield and wondering … how it stacks up with everybody else’s ….”
JASON: “The farmers are the creators of this (harvest) data so we’re trying to create a way that – since they are the first ones to see that data – how can we give them an advantage ….”
NOTE: The Farmobile Index™, exclusive to Farmobile subscribers, only uses data totals, aggregated at the state level. Absolutely NO identifiable farm data is shared.